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A "GLOBAL" ANALYSIS

"How Can We Be The Best Picture And Not Win Best Actors?"
 

A Richard Propes Column

 

January 17 2006

 
An In-Depth Look At What The Golden Globes Will Mean For Oscar Hopefuls
 
With a mere eight days left before nomination ballots are due for the 78th annual Academy Awards®, what impact will last evening's Golden Globes really have on the upcoming race?

Plenty.

The battle lines are being drawn for the upcoming Oscars®, with a a couple "favorites" becoming "heavy favorites," a few darkhorses appearing to be gaining momentum, and nearly everyone wondering if anything will stop the momentum of that darn gay cowboy flick.

"Brokeback Mountain" surprised not a single soul by capturing  the Best Film- Drama, since its primary competition for the year was, in fact, left on the sidelines anyway. With "Good Night, and Good Luck" its only serious competition, "Brokeback" had its win here as a foregone conclusion. Still, this win is only fuel for its passionate fire as it moves ever closer to that Oscar. An Oscar nomination is assured, and "Brokeback Mountain" must be considered the heavy favorite in the Best Picture category. "Walk The Line," which captured the Best Film- Musical or Comedy, solidified its argument for an Oscar nomination, however, its chances at walking home with the golden statuette are about as likely as George W. Bush winning the award as Michael Moore's "Man of the Year." It ain't going to happen! Which film will join "Brokeback" as a Best Picture nominee? There's still no clear-cut choices and the wide distribution of the Globes among other films in leading categories makes it a tough call. I'd have to consider "Walk The Line" a leading candidate now, along with "Good Night, and Good Luck," "A History of Violence," "Syriana" with films such as "Capote," "Match Point", "Munich" and "The Squid and the Whale" darkhorses.

Philip Seymour Hoffman solidified his status as a heavy favorite to take home the Best Actor statuette with his win here as Best Actor in a Drama. What did he do that practically guaranteed a win? No, silly, besides give the best performance of the year in a motion picture. That's obvious. Hoffman picked up his Golden Globe having put back on the weight he'd lost for his role as the thinner, considerably more effeminate Capote, and also with a full facial beard. This visual imagery only solidifies the masterful acting job that Hoffman accomplished in "Capote," and places him miles ahead of his competition. Joaquin Phoenix may have assured himself a nomination, along with cowboy Heath Ledger, and Strathairn. That fifth nomination? It's up for grabs, but the Academy may not be able to avoid sentiment by giving it to Terrence Howard, who offered two award-worthy performances this year and deserves rewarded for at least one of them.

Felicity Huffman also placed herself at the front of the pack for Best Actress with her win for Best Actress-Drama, however, popular Witherspoon significantly increased her chances with her Best Actress- Musical or Comedy win and may give Huffman a run for the Oscar money. I was amazed at the lack of power in this year's nominations in both categories, and filling out the nominations will be quite the task. Frontrunners may well be perennial Oscar fave Charlize Theron for "North Country", Laura Linney for "The Squid and the Whale," and possibly Maria Bello for "A History of Violence." Look for darkhorses Ziyi Zhang and Judi Dench to fight it out for a spot in the final five.

Disappointed but not surprised by Ang Lee's win for Best Director, I won't be too disappointed if Clooney, Spielberg, Allen and Meirelles comprise the list for Oscar nominations. If Spielberg isn't here, this category is a practical "gimme" to Lee, whose film will most certainly be locked out of winning the leading actor/actress categories, though it shows potential for a win in Supporting Actress. 

I found myself admittedly surprised by the Supporting category wins here, both Clooney and Weisz. I should, however, be used to the idea that Giamatti may never get the acclaim he deserves. Clooney's win really clouds up the Supporting Actor category, and puts him slightly ahead of Giamatti and Ferrell here. I wouldn't be terribly surprised with a Jake Gyllenhaal nomination here, and I still expect a couple surprises. I'd be incredibly surprised with Dillon or Hoskins nominations, but, hey, I was surprised Clooney captured this one!

Likewise, where did that Weisz win come from? Did anyone see that coming? I sure didn't. Of course, her competition wasn't the strongest, but I sure expected Michelle Williams to walk away with this award. I'd be stunned if she didn't get an Oscar win here, but Weisz practically guaranteed herself a nomination. I'd look for Johansson and McDormand to join the nomination slate, but I'd be surprised by a MacLaine nomination for the far too fluffy "In Her Shoes," though her performance in the film is marvelous.

Finally, "Paradise Now" jumps in the Best Foreign Film lead, and the "Brokeback" screenplay becomes a heavy favorite. The always popular John Williams may give "Memoirs of a Geisha" its only Oscar win, however, the Score category is always a tough call.

So, what's it all mean? Oscar nomination ballots are due in eight days, and will be announced January 31st. Unlike many recent years when one film seemed like a heavy favorite in all the categories, this year's likely Best Picture favorite is practically assured to not capture all the leading categories. That makes this year's Oscar race one of the most fun to watch in quite a few years! 

 
© Written by Richard Propes


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