| With a mere eight days
left before nomination ballots are due for the 78th annual Academy
Awards®, what impact will last evening's Golden Globes really have on
the upcoming race?
Plenty.
The battle lines are being drawn for the upcoming Oscars®, with a a
couple "favorites" becoming "heavy favorites," a few darkhorses
appearing to be gaining momentum, and nearly everyone wondering if
anything will stop the momentum of that darn gay cowboy flick.
"Brokeback Mountain" surprised not a single soul by capturing
the Best Film- Drama, since its primary competition for the year was, in
fact, left on the sidelines anyway. With "Good Night, and Good Luck" its
only serious competition, "Brokeback" had its win here as a foregone
conclusion. Still, this win is only fuel for its passionate fire as it
moves ever closer to that Oscar. An Oscar nomination is assured, and "Brokeback
Mountain" must be considered the heavy favorite in the Best Picture
category. "Walk The Line," which captured the Best Film- Musical or
Comedy, solidified its argument for an Oscar nomination, however, its
chances at walking home with the golden statuette are about as likely as
George W. Bush winning the award as Michael Moore's "Man of the Year."
It ain't going to happen! Which film will join "Brokeback" as a Best
Picture nominee? There's still no clear-cut choices and the wide
distribution of the Globes among other films in leading categories makes
it a tough call. I'd have to consider "Walk The Line" a leading
candidate now, along with "Good Night, and Good Luck," "A History of
Violence," "Syriana" with films such as "Capote," "Match Point",
"Munich" and "The Squid and the Whale" darkhorses.
Philip Seymour Hoffman solidified his status as a heavy favorite to
take home the Best Actor statuette with his win here as Best Actor in a
Drama. What did he do that practically guaranteed a win? No, silly,
besides give the best performance of the year in a motion picture.
That's obvious. Hoffman picked up his Golden Globe having put back on
the weight he'd lost for his role as the thinner, considerably more
effeminate Capote, and also with a full facial beard. This visual
imagery only solidifies the masterful acting job that Hoffman
accomplished in "Capote," and places him miles ahead of his competition.
Joaquin Phoenix may have assured himself a nomination, along with cowboy
Heath Ledger, and Strathairn. That fifth nomination? It's up for grabs,
but the Academy may not be able to avoid sentiment by giving it to
Terrence Howard, who offered two award-worthy performances this year and
deserves rewarded for at least one of them.
Felicity Huffman also placed herself at the front of the pack for
Best Actress with her win for Best Actress-Drama, however, popular
Witherspoon significantly increased her chances with her Best Actress-
Musical or Comedy win and may give Huffman a run for the Oscar money. I
was amazed at the lack of power in this year's nominations in both
categories, and filling out the nominations will be quite the task.
Frontrunners may well be perennial Oscar fave Charlize Theron for "North
Country", Laura Linney for "The Squid and the Whale," and possibly Maria
Bello for "A History of Violence." Look for darkhorses Ziyi Zhang and
Judi Dench to fight it out for a spot in the final five.
Disappointed but not surprised by Ang Lee's win for Best Director, I
won't be too disappointed if Clooney, Spielberg, Allen and Meirelles
comprise the list for Oscar nominations. If Spielberg isn't here, this
category is a practical "gimme" to Lee, whose film will most certainly
be locked out of winning the leading actor/actress categories, though it
shows potential for a win in Supporting Actress.
I found myself admittedly surprised by the Supporting category wins
here, both Clooney and Weisz. I should, however, be used to the idea
that Giamatti may never get the acclaim he deserves. Clooney's win
really clouds up the Supporting Actor category, and puts him slightly
ahead of Giamatti and Ferrell here. I wouldn't be terribly surprised
with a Jake Gyllenhaal nomination here, and I still expect a couple
surprises. I'd be incredibly surprised with Dillon or Hoskins
nominations, but, hey, I was surprised Clooney captured this one!
Likewise, where did that Weisz win come from? Did anyone see that
coming? I sure didn't. Of course, her competition wasn't the strongest,
but I sure expected Michelle Williams to walk away with this award. I'd
be stunned if she didn't get an Oscar win here, but Weisz practically
guaranteed herself a nomination. I'd look for Johansson and McDormand to
join the nomination slate, but I'd be surprised by a MacLaine nomination
for the far too fluffy "In Her Shoes," though her performance in the
film is marvelous.
Finally, "Paradise Now" jumps in the Best Foreign Film lead, and the
"Brokeback" screenplay becomes a heavy favorite. The always popular John
Williams may give "Memoirs of a Geisha" its only Oscar win, however, the
Score category is always a tough call.
So, what's it all mean? Oscar nomination ballots are due in eight
days, and will be announced January 31st. Unlike many recent years when
one film seemed like a heavy favorite in all the categories, this year's
likely Best Picture favorite is practically assured to not capture all
the leading categories. That makes this year's Oscar race one of the
most fun to watch in quite a few years! |