• Brokeback Mountain
• Capote
• Good Night, and Good Luck
• The Squid and the Whale
• The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada

Will Win & Should Win: Capote        

Best First Feature

• Crash
• Lackawanna Blues
• Me And You And Everyone We Know
• Transamerica
• Thumbsucker

Will Win: Crash

Should Win: Me and You and Everyone We Know

Best Director

• Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
• George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
• Gregg Araki, Mysterious Skin
• Rodrigo Garcia, Nine Lives
• Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale

Will Win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain

Should Win: Gregg Araki, Mysterious Skin

Best Female Lead

• Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
• Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale
• S. Epatha Merkerson, Lackawanna Blues
• Cyndi Williams, Room
• Dina Korzun, Forty Shades of Blue

Will Win & Should Win: Felicity Huffman

Best Male Lead

• Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
• Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
• Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale
• Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
• David Strathairn, Good Night and Good Luck

Will Win & Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

Best Supporting Female

• Amy Adams, Junebug
• Maggie Gyllenhaal, Happy Endings
• Robin Wright Penn, Nine Lives
• Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
• Allison Janney, Our Very Own

Will Win: Michelle Williams  

Should Win: Adams or Williams

Best Supporting Male

• Firdous Bamji, The War Within
• Matt Dillon, Crash
• Jesse Eisenberg, The Squid and the Whale
• Jeffrey Wright, Broken Flowers
• Barry Pepper, The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada

Will Win: Matt Dillon   

Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg

Best Screenplay

• The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada
• The War Within
• The Squid and the Whale
• Nine Lives
• Capote

Will Win & Should Win: The Squid and the Whale

Best First Screenplay

• Fixing Frank
• Me and You and Everyone We Know
• Junebug
• Transamerica
• The Beautiful Country

Will Win: Junebug   

Should Win: Me and You and Everyone We Know

Best Cinematography

• Capote
• Good Night, and Good Luck
• The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada
• Last Days
• Keane

Will Win & Should Win: Capote

Best Documentary

• Grizzly Man
• Enron: The Smartest Guys In The Room
• Sir! No Sir!
• Romantico
• La Sierra

Will Win & Should Win: Grizzly Man

Best Foreign Film

• The Death of Mr. Lazarescu, Romania
• Duck Season, Mexico
• Paradise Now, Palestine
• Head-On, Germany/Turkey
• Tony Takitani, Japan

Will Win & Should Win: Paradise Now

*I have intentionally not chosen a winner in the race for the John Cassavetes Award, a category recognizing films made with a budget under $500,000. I have not seen enough of the nominated films to offer a valid opinion.